LIMENCapital
ResearchHowell · Park · Alden · Apr 2026
Liquidity Dashboard

“All money that is anywhere must be somewhere.”

44 concepts · 3 frameworks · Apr 2026

Limen · ResearchGlobal Liquidity
70–80%
Transactions that are refinancing
77–80%
Lending that is collateral-based

Financial Markets as Debt Refinancing Mechanisms

70–80% of all financial market transactions are debt rollovers — capital allocation is the sideshow.

Limen · Research
65-Month Cycle — Current Position
ReboundCalmSpeculationTurbulence◉ NOW
Global Liquidity

Global Liquidity Cycle (65-Month)

Limen · Research
~80%
Transactions that are refinancing
77%
Lending collateral-backed
Global Liquidity

Debt-Liquidity Nexus

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Liquidity Drain per Factor (%)
Global Liquidity

Four Horsemen of the Liquidity Apocalypse

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~22%
Bills as % of total debt
$2T+
Yellen-era bill issuance
Global Liquidity

Treasury QE vs. Fed QE

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~$1T
Annual global RMP estimate
~90 CBs
Coverage
Global Liquidity

Reserve Management Purchases (RMP)

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TGA drain
SOFR blowout (end-2025)
$200B TGA
Collateral drain trigger
Global Liquidity

Repo Market Stress

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Global Liquidity

Term Premia and the Safe Asset Demand Paradox

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Global Liquidity

Yield Curve Taxonomy by Cycle Phase

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Global Liquidity

Commercial Bank Disintermediation

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16 years
Super-cycle duration
~700%
S&P return (2009–2025)
Macro

The Everything Bubble

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Annual Debt Roll (US$B)  ■ Hist. ■ Proj.
Macro

Debt Maturity Wall

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Bitcoin / stablecoins
US collateral
Gold
China collateral
Macro

Two Monetary Systems: Digital vs. Gold-Backed

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~$250B
Stablecoin market cap (2026)
US Treasuries
Primary backing
Macro

Stablecoins and Re-Dollarization

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~$1T
Annual PBOC injection
10–15 years
Japan lag
Macro

China's Anti-Cyclical Liquidity

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Macro

The Interest Rate Paradox

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Macro

Gold-Oil Ratio

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~$30B
Buybacks per 10pt MOVE rise
~$600B
Injected since end-2025
Global Liquidity

The Collateral Put

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~65×
Gold-oil ratio (Apr 2026)
20×
Long-run equilibrium
Global Liquidity

Commodity Supercycle Timing

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40–45%
Bitcoin liquidity sensitivity
13 weeks
GLI lead on Bitcoin
Bitcoin

Monetary Inflation Hedges

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~28×
Long-term BTC/gold ratio
~$98K
BTC at $3,500 gold
Bitcoin

Bitcoin-Gold Relationship

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Crypto → Gold
Notice 42 effect
Structural
PBOC annual gold buying
Bitcoin

Gold Price: China as Primary Driver

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Asset Classes  ● Go ● Caution ● Avoid
ReboundCalmSpec.Turb.
Equities●●●●
Credits●●●●
Commodities●●●●
Bond Duration●●●●
Cash●●●●
Bitcoin

Asset Allocation Cycle

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3
Simultaneous pressures
None
Comparable prior period
Macro

Convergence Thesis: Jump to Universality

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~1/3
Countries with declining population
All 10
Top 10 economies affected
Macro

Global Demographic Headwinds

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33%
Top 10% share of consumption
~25%
Previous peak (Gilded Age)
Macro

Wealth Concentration and Demand Drag

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Labor-enhancing
Prior tech effect
Labor-displacing
AI effect
Macro

Value of Labor Approaching Zero

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2030–2050
Boomer liquidation window
2030
All Boomers 65+
Macro

Real Estate Distortion and Boomer Liquidation

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Negligible
Boomer ownership
Infinite scale
Portability vs gold
Bitcoin

Bitcoin as Digital Nomadic Asset

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All-time high
Equity-bond correlation
60%
Compliance allocation
Macro

Radical Portfolio Theory

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All-time high
Monthly equity-bond correlation
15bps
Japan rate hike trigger
Macro

Fiscal Dominance as Correlation Driver

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Scarcity + gray-area
Selection criteria
Institutionalized
Bitcoin status
Macro

Resistance Assets

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Macro

Dilution Framework

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Macro

Nothing Stops This Train

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Macro

Soft Financial Repression

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Macro

Layered Money

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Deflationary
Phase 1 character
Inflationary
Phase 2 character
Macro

Two-Phase Debt Bubble Model

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6%/yr
Broad money growth (since 1913)
325×
Per-capita increase
Macro

Broad Money as the True Debasement Metric

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US Treasuries
SVB held
Maturity mismatch
Structural cause
Macro

Fractional Reserve Banking as Liquidity Mismatch

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Accumulating since 2014
Central bank gold trend
2022
Russia seizure year
Macro

Gold as Re-Emerged Neutral Reserve Asset

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Telegraph era (~1880s)
Mismatch origin
Minutes to hours
Settlement speed
Bitcoin

Bitcoin as Fast Settlement Innovation

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~$2T
Current market cap
~20–40× larger
Gold market size
Bitcoin

Bitcoin Reserve Asset Pathway

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3–4%/yr
Productivity growth avg
5–6%/yr
Money supply needed for 2% CPI
Macro

Price Deflation Is Good (In the Right System)

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Inflexible global demand
Dollar overvaluation source
Government + NY finance
Winners
Macro

US Reserve Currency Structural Costs