31 concepts · 3 frameworks · Apr 2026
70–80% of all financial market transactions are debt rollovers — capital allocation is the sideshow.
A repeating 65-month refinancing cycle that leads all major asset classes.
Debt needs liquidity to roll over. Liquidity needs debt as collateral. Break either leg and the system seizes.
Four simultaneous liquidity pressures converging in 2025–2026 — the most dangerous combination in decades.
The US Treasury conducts its own form of QE via bill issuance — with the same liquidity injection effect but zero political scrutiny.